In Q2 2010, we saw improvements in the nation’s hiring outlook, and we cautiously cheered a little. But this time around, we may want to grab the nearest vuvuzela and blow it in excitement. (Or, uh, not.) Because while hiring in the second half of 2010 is likely to mirror the first half of the year in many ways, CareerBuilder and USA Today’s mid-year nationwide survey of more than 2,500 hiring and HR managers and more than 4,400 workers also shows that the economy is projected to trend upward in comparison to last year at this time — and is on par with last quarter’s positive changes.
How have things changed from one year ago?
All things considered, employer behaviors and mindsets have shifted considerably from last year at this time. Forty-one percent of employers say they plan to hire between the months of July – December 2010, and employers project that in Q3 2010 specifically, they:
- Will add full-time, permanent headcount (21 percent)
- Will not make changes in staff size (65 percent)
- Will downsize staff (8 percent)
- Are undecided on staff size changes (6 percent)
One year ago, we saw that most employers expected their staff levels to remain the same as recruiting patterns held steady and job losses trended downward. Similar to this year’s numbers, 68 percent of employers didn’t anticipate any change in their full-time, permanent headcount, but in contrast, only 15 percent expected to increase staff levels (18 percent actually did). Fifteen percent decreased headcount, which is almost twice the percentage of hiring and HR managers who project a decrease in headcount in Q3 2010.
In Q3 2009, many employers were also reporting plans to postpone start dates for job offers, put mandatory furloughs into place, and institute pay cuts and hiring freezes. Today, although we’re still not completely out of the woods, we’re beginning to see a bit of daylight.
How have things changed from last quarter?
The number of employers who added full-time, permanent headcount in Q2 2010 was slightly ahead of what was originally forecasted in the survey, continuing a trend of actual hiring beating projected hiring.
In Q2 2010:
- 24 percent of employers reported they increased their full-time, permanent staff in the second quarter (up from 18 percent year over year and up 1 percent from Q1 2010).
- 11 percent decreased headcount (an improvement from 17 percent last year and 12 percent in Q1 2010).
- 64 percent reported no change in their number of full-time, permanent employees.
- 1 percent were undecided.
“The survey indicates that we’ll see sustainable new job growth through the remainder of the year, but it will be absent of any dramatic shifts,” said Matt Ferguson, CareerBuilder CEO.
Compensation Outlook
Fifteen percent of employers reported they instituted pay cuts at their organizations in the last 12 months. Of these employers, 28 percent were restoring pay levels in the first half of the year, 18 percent in the latter half and 25 percent in 2011 and 2012. Twenty-nine percent were unsure if and when pay would be restored to previous levels.
For Q3 2010 specifically:
- 42 percent of employers anticipate no change
- 37 percent expect there will be an increase of 1 to 3 percent
- 12 percent expect to see an increase of 4 to 10 percent
- 3 percent expect a decrease
- 1 percent anticipate an increase of 11 percent or more
Three trends to watch for in the second half of 2010
1. Emerging Jobs – Employers are looking to fill positions relatively new to the work force. Twenty-four percent of employers said they are recruiting for positions in social media, green energy, cyber security, global relations and health care reform.
2. Changing Jobs – Employers are implementing measures to retain top performers. This is good, because according to the forecast, 25 percent of all workers plan to leave their organizations in the next 12 months.
3. Shortage of Skilled Labor — One-in-five employers reported that, despite an abundant labor pool, they still have positions for which they can’t find qualified candidates.
Unhappy Employees
Many workers are re-evaluating their employment situations — and realizing they’re not too happy with their current employer.
- Twenty-five percent of workers reported they have a worse opinion of their employer in the wake of the recession. Fourteen percent have a better opinion and 61 percent stayed the same.
- Twenty-nine percent of workers plan to pursue new job opportunities when the economy shows more improvement. As mentioned earlier, a quarter of all workers plan to leave their jobs over the next 12 months.
Why the dissatisfaction?
Several factors influenced these decisions, but many appear related to the recession.
- 30 percent of workers reported feeling over-worked, feeling the climate changed in their work environment and harboring resentment over other workers being laid off.
- One-third of workers (33 percent) reported they feel overqualified for their current jobs
- 23 percent stated that a lack of interesting work was one of the main motivators for changing employers.
What can you do as an employer to retain employees?
When asked what their employers could do to retain them as employees, workers cited the following:
- Increased compensation is the No. 1 thing workers want.
- If salary increases aren’t possible, workers point to employee recognition as the next best thing.
- Third in line, workers want the company to set realistic performance expectations and manageable workloads, and to take the time to evaluate their potential and discuss career paths.
- Investments in training and the company showing an ability to adapt were also mentioned.
To get in-depth survey results broken down by industry, region, and company size, as well as further predictions for Q3 2010, you can download the complete Q3 Forecast here.
Note: Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.