Hiring plans in the U.S. are getting back to pre-recession levels, according to CareerBuilder’s latest nationwide survey. 

One-third of employers added full-time, permanent employees in the first quarter of this year, on par with 2007 and the highest increase reported since the recession began.  The momentum is expected to continue with 30 percent of employers planning to add new full-time, permanent staff in April through June. More than 2,000 hiring managers and human resource professionals across industries and company sizes participated in the latest survey.

Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder, offers his take on the results:

We have moved from an anemic job market to one that is stable and growing. While still cautious, employers are feeling better about the state of the U.S. economy and the debt situation in Europe.  Forty-one percent of companies reported their sales have increased over the last six months, which is helping to fuel greater confidence in hiring.  The amount of job listings we’re seeing for key categories on CareerBuilder.com are similar to that of 2007.  All indicators point to steady improvement in the job market in the second quarter and beyond.

Here are some takeaways from the forecast:

• One third (33 percent) of employers added full-time, permanent staff in the first quarter of 2012
• Nine percent decreased headcount in the first quarter 2012, a slight improvement from 10 percent last year.
• Looking ahead, 30 percent of employers plan to increase their full-time, permanent headcount in the second quarter.
• Thirty-seven percent of employers hired contract or temporary workers in the first quarter, up from 29 percent last year.
• Hiring in companies of all sizes is showing signs of improvement.  The percentage of employers planning to recruit in the next few months increased by two to three percentage points over last year for different segments.

Challenges Ahead for Employers

Results from the survey indicate what employers can expect in the coming months.

Increased Competition for Talent: Of employers who recruited for positions in the last year, more than half (56 percent) reported that a candidate rejected a job offer from their organization.  Forty-one percent of those attributed the rejection to their inability to provide the candidate’s desired salary while 22 percent said they didn’t offer the position quickly enough and the candidate was already hired somewhere else.

Growing Skills Shortage: Despite the high unemployment rate, many employers struggle to find the talent they need, and the challenge is only growing. Thirty-one percent of employers currently have jobs for which they can’t find qualified employees, up from 24 percent last year, and 15 percent of employers reported that, because they can’t fill high-skill positions within their organizations, they’re not able to create lower-skilled positions that are tied to these roles. The findings indicate a need for employers to recognize the need to plan ahead and recognize how the growing gap between high-skill job openings and available talent has a larger impact on overall employment.

For complete survey results, download the full Q2 Hiring Forecast here.

On CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning, CareerBuilder CEO Matt Ferguson discussed job expectations versus job creation; the disconnect caused by the structural mismatch between available jobs and available skills; the industry with the biggest skill shortage right now; and the area hottest in wage growth.

Check out what else Ferguson has to say about the state of jobs in America:

In anticipation of tomorrow’s BLS unemployment report, CareerBuilder’s CEO Matt Ferguson appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning to discuss job market trends; causes of current economic uncertainty; in which job areas we’re seeing the most improvement — and much more:

According to CareerBuilder’s Mid-Year Job Forecast:

• Nearly half of U.S. employers (47 percent) plan to hire new employees in the second half of the year, up from 41% in 2010.  The number of companies hiring specifically for full-time, permanent staff rose to 35% from 28% last year.
• Customer Service, Information Technology and Sales remain the top three areas where companies say they will hire first in the back half of the year.
• More than one-third (35 percent) of employers are concerned that key talent will leave their organizations as the economy improves, a trend that has become increasingly evident over the last six months; 18% of employers reported top workers left their organizations in Q2 2011, up from 14 percent in Q1 2011.

What’s your take on the newest job forecast results and on what Matt had to say about the market?

CareerBuilder CEO Matt Ferguson appeared on CNBC Power Lunch late last week to discuss findings from the Young Presidents’ Organization’s Global Pulse CEO Confidence Index, a survey gauging opinions of CEOs on the future of the economy. He also talked about changes in job activity on CareerBuilder’s site and answered questions about job creation for 2011 and which industries and regions are doing the most robust hiring right now.

YPO (Young Presidents’ Organization), a global network of 17,000 CEOs under the age of 50, surveyed 2,256 CEOs across the world representing companies of all sizes (1,144 respondents were in the U.S.) to measure economic sentiment. The Global Pulse CEO Confidence Index found, among other things, that the hiring outlook is improving both here in the U.S. and abroad.

Watch Matt’s full interview on CNBC Power Lunch:

Let’s take a closer look at a few key findings from the YPO survey:

1. CEOs are more growing more confident in the economy.

• Global confidence rose 2.8 points to 64.7.  The U.S. index rose 3.6 points to 63.5, the highest since the survey began in July 2009.
• 61% of CEOS said economic conditions have improved compared to six months ago, up from 46% last quarter.
• 67% expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 60% last quarter.
• The emerging markets are the most bullish while the European Union has been the least optimistic, though confidence levels are rising there as well.  Lower confidence levels in countries like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal are tied to sovereign debt problems.  Latin America is the most optimistic.

2. The hiring outlook is improving domestically and internationally.

• The YPO employment index rose 1.9 points to 59.0 in the U.S. Hiring expectations were positive across all sectors, including construction, which prior to this point has lagged production and services.

3. Companies expect stronger sales this year

• The sales confidence index for the U.S. rose to 68.5 from 49.2 in July 2009.   Production and services companies remain enthusiastic about the pace of the sales in 2011.  Construction is growing more confident.

4. Firms of all sizes expect to boost capital spending.

• The investment confidence index for the U.S. rose 1.5 points to 59.7.

How do these results compare to what you’re seeing at your own organization?

July’s job numbers were just released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they may give you flashes of Bill Murray a la Groundhog Day, as the unemployment rate remained at 9.5 percent in July and another month went by without significant improvement in our employment situation.  But as Bill Murray’s character, Phil Connors,  reminded us in the film, we can see see the groundhog signifying six more weeks of winter as  bleak and dark and bereft of hope,  or look at the positives of the situation and acknowledge where we’re improving. After all, we’ve gained 630,000 private sector jobs this year — and there’s still five months of 2010 that remains to be seen.

Additionally, we’re seeing moderate, sequential improvements across almost every job category on CareerBuilder itself. Entry-level jobs are up 100 percent year over year,  and in the skilled areas for both construction and manufacturing, we’re seeing jobs up 50 percent year over year, as CareerBuilder CEO Matt Ferguson pointed out on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning. Ferguson explained July’s job numbers from his point of view, how things have changed since 2008, and the good and the bad of what’s going on now.

Watch the VIDEO:

Let’s take a closer look at BLS’s Employment Situation report for July:

• Both the number of unemployed persons, at 14.6 million, and the unemployment rate, at 9.5 percent, were unchanged in July.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, but those losses were due to to 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completing their work.
• So far this year, private sector employment has increased by 630,000, with about two-thirds of the gain occurring in March and April.
• The average hourly wage rose slightly in July, from $22.55, to $22.59. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent.
• Private employers added 71,000 jobs in July, up from a downwardly revised 31,000 in June but below the consensus forecast of 90,000.
• The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (because either their hours had been cut back or they were unable to find a full-time job) was essentially unchanged over the month at 8.5 million but has declined by 623,000 since April.
• The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased from 34.1 hours to 34.2 hours — signaling employers are looking for more productivity from the same number of workers.

NOTE: June’s number was revised dramatically downward to a total loss of 221,000 jobs. The agency originally reported that the nation lost 125,000 jobs in June.

Industry-Specific Changes for July:

• Manufacturing employment increased by 36,000 over the month. Manufacturing employment has expanded by 183,000 since December 2009.
• Health care added 27,000 jobs in July. Over the past 12 months, health care employment has risen by 231,000.
• Employment in professional and business services was little changed (13,000) in July.
• The number of jobs in temporary help services showed little movement (-6,000) over the month.
• Employment in financial activities continued to trend down in July, with a decline of 17,000. So far this year, monthly job losses in the industry have averaged 12,000, compared with an average monthly job loss of 29,000 for all of 2009.
• Construction employment changed little (-11,000) in July; 10,000 construction workers were off payrolls due to strike activity.
• Employment in other private-sector industries, including wholesale trade, retail trade, information, and leisure and hospitality showed little change in July.

What happens next?

Although we’ve pointed out positives when looking at 2010 as a whole, expectations are high, and many say job market improvements are not keeping up with the number of entrants to the job market. An article in The New York Times stresses that today’s unemployment report renewed pressure on lawmakers to consider the next steps they might take to bolster the economy. After more of the same with job numbers, employers are hoping to break the Phil Connors cycle and wake up next to Rita with “I’ve Got You Babe” playing on the radio — er, wake up with more jobs to be had and more people getting work. Time will tell as to what combination of factors will get us there — and stop us from stepping in that same puddle every morning.

In Q2 2010, we saw improvements in the nation’s hiring outlook, and we cautiously cheered a little. But this time around, we may want to grab the nearest vuvuzela and blow it in excitement. (Or, uh, not.) Because while hiring in the second half of 2010 is likely to mirror the first half of the year in many ways, CareerBuilder and USA Today’s mid-year nationwide survey of more than 2,500 hiring and HR managers and more than 4,400 workers also shows that  the economy is projected to trend upward in comparison to last year at this time — and is on par with last quarter’s positive changes.

How have things changed from one year ago?

All things considered, employer behaviors and mindsets have shifted considerably from last year at this time. Forty-one percent of employers say they plan to hire between the months of July – December 2010, and employers project that in Q3 2010 specifically, they:

• Will add full-time, permanent headcount (21 percent)
• Will not make changes in staff size (65 percent)
• Will downsize staff (8 percent)
• Are undecided on staff size changes (6 percent)

One year ago, we saw that most employers expected their staff levels to remain the same as recruiting patterns held steady and job losses trended downward. Similar to this year’s numbers, 68 percent of employers didn’t anticipate any change in their full-time, permanent headcount, but in contrast, only 15 percent expected to increase staff levels (18 percent actually did). Fifteen percent decreased headcount, which is almost twice the percentage of hiring and HR managers who project a decrease in headcount in Q3 2010.

In Q3 2009, many employers were also reporting plans to postpone start dates for job offers, put mandatory furloughs into place, and institute pay cuts and hiring freezes. Today, although we’re still not completely out of the woods, we’re beginning to see a bit of daylight.

How have things changed from last quarter?

The number of employers who added full-time, permanent headcount in Q2 2010 was slightly ahead of what was originally forecasted in the survey, continuing a trend of actual hiring beating projected hiring.

In Q2 2010:

• 24 percent of employers reported they increased their full-time, permanent staff in the second quarter (up from 18 percent year over year and up 1 percent from Q1 2010).
• 11 percent decreased headcount (an improvement from 17 percent last year and 12 percent in Q1 2010).
• 64 percent reported no change in their number of full-time, permanent employees.
• 1 percent were undecided.

“The survey indicates that we’ll see sustainable new job growth through the remainder of the year, but it will be absent of any dramatic shifts,” said Matt Ferguson, CareerBuilder CEO.

Compensation Outlook

Fifteen percent of employers reported they instituted pay cuts at their organizations in the last 12 months.  Of these employers, 28 percent were restoring pay levels in the first half of the year, 18 percent in the latter half and 25 percent in 2011 and 2012.  Twenty-nine percent were unsure if and when pay would be restored to previous levels.

For Q3 2010 specifically:

• 42 percent of employers anticipate no change
• 37 percent expect there will be an increase of 1 to 3 percent
• 12 percent expect to see an increase of 4 to 10 percent
• 3 percent expect a decrease
• 1 percent anticipate an increase of 11 percent or more

Three trends to watch for in the second half of 2010

1. Emerging Jobs – Employers are looking to fill positions relatively new to the work force. Twenty-four percent of employers said they are recruiting for positions in social media, green energy, cyber security, global relations and health care reform.

2. Changing Jobs – Employers are implementing measures to retain top performers. This is good, because according to the forecast, 25 percent of all workers plan to leave their organizations in the next 12 months.

3. Shortage of Skilled Labor — One-in-five employers reported that, despite an abundant labor pool, they still have positions for which they can’t find qualified candidates.

Unhappy Employees

Many workers are re-evaluating their employment situations — and realizing they’re not too happy with their current employer.

• Twenty-five percent of workers reported they have a worse opinion of their employer in the wake of the recession. Fourteen percent have a better opinion and 61 percent stayed the same.
• Twenty-nine percent of workers plan to pursue new job opportunities when the economy shows more improvement.  As mentioned earlier, a quarter of all workers plan to leave their jobs over the next 12 months.

Why the dissatisfaction?

Several factors influenced these decisions, but many appear related to the recession.

• 30 percent of workers reported feeling over-worked, feeling the climate changed in their work environment and harboring resentment over other workers being laid off.
• One-third of workers (33 percent) reported they feel overqualified for their current jobs
• 23 percent stated that a lack of interesting work was one of the main motivators for changing employers.

What can you do as an employer to retain employees?

When asked what their employers could do to retain them as employees, workers cited the following:

1. Increased compensation is the No. 1 thing workers want.
2. If salary increases aren’t possible, workers point to employee recognition as the next best thing.
3. Third in line, workers want the company to set realistic performance expectations and manageable workloads, and to take the time to evaluate their potential and discuss career paths.
4. Investments in training and the company showing an ability to adapt were also mentioned.

To get in-depth survey results broken down by industry, region, and company size, as well as further predictions for Q3 2010, you can download the complete Q3 Forecast here.

Note: Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding.